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The downward spiral continues

We reiterate our anticipation of further price erosion during the upcoming drug tenders, as two pieces of new information have emerged in the past four days, including a top decision-maker’s hawkish speech and the aggressive reform tactics from Tianjin. The surprise move from Tianjin suggests it is highly likely larger prices cuts are coming. This is consistent with our view that drug companies will face a challenging 2H15 and 2016 as the impact from price cuts hits P&L. We suggest investors to exercise caution post the recent rally for our Hold-rated names including Sino Biopharma and Shanghai Pharma.

Timeline of recent events

On Monday 23 March, the drug administrative office of NHFPC issued a notice regarding organization of a meeting on Friday 27 March to focus on drug tenders and the No.7 guideline, with the provincial drug administrative offices from 11 provinces, including Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Sichuan and Chongqing, as well as a few other smaller provinces. On Thursday 26 March, Mr. Sun, the director of National Health Care Reform Office, delivered an 18-page prepared speech during the National Drug Administrative Conference, targeting drug prices, with more specific language than the industry has seen before. On Monday 30 March, the Tianjin government issued reform guidelines that it would adopt the lowest tender prices.

Mr. Sun: No room for flexibility in cutting prices

On page 11 of the prepared remarks, Mr. Sun articulated that “the objective for the reform is to cut drug prices, a significant issue that we need to resolve; this is a hard requirement and there shouldn’t be any room for flexibility”. This is by far the most hawkish comment we ever observed from the senior leadership of healthcare reform. The prompt closed-door meeting with healthcare authorities from 11 provinces, which was scheduled before this conference, made us wonder what kind of specific orders were given during that meeting.

Tianjin: To adjust drug prices to the lowest in China on a quarterly basis

As a dovish city historically, Tianjin certainly surprised us. The most distinctive feature of its guideline is that it will adjust drug prices to the lowest in China on a quarterly basis. Additionally, a secondary negotiation would be adopted, suggesting new trough-levels are inevitable. Additionally, the whole of Tianjin will implement the removal of the 15% drug mark-up.

Sector volatility expected to continue; risks

We believe we are still at the early/mid stage of the price cut cycle. Volatility for drug names is expected in the near term, while we remain bullish on the growth of the healthcare sector in the long run. We primarily use a multiple-based approach for valuation. Risks include policy implementation, limited room for price increases and controls over reimbursement budgeting.

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